How many friends can you have?

I first ran across Dunbar’s number in The Tipping Point. Robin Dunbar estimates that humans can maintain, on average, a group size of 150 people. Beyond that people are more like strangers. The Economist interviewed Cameron Marlow from Facebook, who has analyzed how people socialize on Facebook. The numbers are better summarized here. The key point is that people appear to have a close relationship (measured by regular communication) with only 5% of their overall group. The average number of friends on Facebook is 120 (though a big range), but people regularly communicate with only around 6 of those people (women have a few more close friends than men). I don’t think you can equate Facebook friends with Dunbar’s number because it’s too easy to add random people and never think about them again. But it’s interesting that the average is around the same.

All-you-can-read subscription for news

Newspapers are dying. Walter Isaacson says newspapers must charge for content, but Michael Kinsley says it will not work. In particular, Isaacson likes micropayments, but almost everyone else hates the idea. This blog explains the problem with newspapers better than most. Before everyone gives up on the idea of charging for content, let’s remember that Apple succeeded with music, Amazon’s Kindle looks impressive with books, NetFlix is going strong with DVDs & streaming movies, HBO is still going strong with plain old TV, and the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times require a subscription. The New York Times had a subscription for some stuff, took it down, but are now rethinking the issue. I believe the solution to building a viable news business is to take a two-pronged approach; nevertheless, there are too many subpar newspapers that should go bankrupt anyway (NYT agrees).

Espresso machine buying guide

My current espresso machine, a Francis!Francis! X5, has been losing pressure and producing swill for several weeks. After reading tons of information scattered on the web, I’ve decided to write it all down for posterity and save others from doing all this work. First, it’s important to understand that the toilet water served at Starbucks and other cafes is not espresso. Try an espresso or cortado at one of these fine coffee shops to understand why.

Solving the Great Recession

After reading a million contradictory economics articles and blog posts about out current financial meltdown, here’s my ignorant attempt at a solution. The economy is like a series of tubes: the Keynesian formula is consumption + investment + government + exports – imports = GDP. All of these values have dropped markedly. Many banks have lost so much money that they are bankrupt but refuse to admit it (zombie banks); therefore, they are sitting on whatever capital they have left and making fewer real loans. Consumers have been hit hard by the fall in real estate and investments, and by growing unemployment. For the first time in years they are saving rather than consuming (paradox of thrift), which reduces demand for goods. In the long run, the government is doomed to bankruptcy because of the steady growth in entitlements, mostly due to health care. Finally, the financial collapse is global, so we can’t depend on exports to tread water like Japan did during the 90s. So the world is royally screwed.